Volume 3,Issue 9
Real-time Forecasting of Business Climate Index in Cultural, Sports, and Entertainment Industries of China: A Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model Approach
Since China’s economic reform, the cultural, sports, and entertainment (CSE) industries have experienced significant growth. Currently, there is a lack of effective high-frequency indicators to help policymakers and industry practitioners monitor CSE developments in real time. This study constructs a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model to provide real-time forecasting of the Prosperity Index of Enterprises (PIE) in China’s CSE industries, utilizing a dataset consisting of 26 macroeconomic indicators from 2010 to 2024. The results revealed that the model effectively captured fluctuations in PIE, successfully distinguishing economic situation before and after the COVID-19. Compared to existing macroeconomic forecasting models, this model exhibits superior predictive accuracy.
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